Communications Battlefield 2003: 
The PR challenges
confronting President Bush

By Frank Williams, President
Pioneer Strategies, Inc.
March 18, 2003

As President Bush continues America's war on terror and seeks to make a case for military action against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, the battle for worldwide public opinion has become increasingly tense and heated.  It's safe to say that the communications battlefield on which the administration is now competing is as delicate, volatile, and unpredictable as any America has faced since the Cuban missile crisis.  

General Communication Goals

In general terms, President Bush and his team are trying to achieve four simple communication goals:

1.   Keeping the American people focused on the War on Terror;

2.   Building domestic and international support for the administration's position on Iraq; 

3.   Convincing the American people and the world that the situation with Iraq is part of the War on Terror; and

4.   Reassuring the American people that he is not neglecting domestic issues while focusing on foreign policy challenges. 

This is where the simplicity ends.  The administration must deal with a wide range of target groups, each of which has its own agenda, as well as a significant number of independent factors which impact and have the potential to wreak havoc on the administration's communications and PR efforts. 

Target Groups and Corresponding Communications Goals

The American People:  Communicating with the American people is a complex task for any president in any environment.  President Bush is faced with the task of communicating his message regarding the war on terror to a public that has a short attention span, is distracted by domestic issues such as the economy, and has a wide range of opinions on how the situation should be resolved.  The president's goal is to sell the American people on the administration's stance on Iraq by: (1) demonstrating that Saddam Hussein's regime is a threat to the safety of the American people; and (2) demonstrating that repeated attempts to negotiate with the Iraqi regime have failed, that Hussein cannot be trusted, and that military intervention is the only viable remaining option for disarming Iraq and decreasing the threat his weapons pose to the American people.  The president must achieve these communication goals while his political opponents are hard at work trying to discredit him and his administration.  The president must also make a case to the American people as to why we should move forward against Iraq in the face of opposition from some members of the United Nations Security Council.  Finally, he must make the case as to why we should act now rather than later.  This is no small task, to say the least.

Men and Women in uniform:  As I write this article, it appears that the conflict with Iraq is imminent.  As we move toward military action, the president must reassure the members of our military that his administration supports them and will provide them with the resources they need to achieve their objectives.  In an effort to quell the fears of some that this conflict will be a replay of Vietnam, the president must reassure our men and women in uniform that they have a clear, well-defined objective.  

Supportive leaders of other nations:  Many leaders of countries who support President Bush's stance on Iraq are sticking out their political necks.  British Prime Minister Tony Blair heads this list.  Blair, a member of Britain's liberal Labor Party, is facing opposition from within his own party and from the British public at large for his staunch support of President Bush's stance on Iraq.  The president must continue to show support and concern for those leaders who are sticking their necks out to assist with his efforts.   

Citizens of countries with supportive leaders:  One of the most important ways the administration can assist supportive leaders of other nations is to help them make a case for war against Iraq in their own countries.  The administration can do this by providing them with information which justifies military action against Hussein's regime and by helping them communicate that information to their respective constituencies. 

Americans who are opposed to military action in Iraq:  It is obvious that President Bush and his team have a  strong conviction that military action against Iraq is necessary for our safety.  There are others in our country who are equally passionate in their opposition to military intervention.  As military action unfolds, the administration needs to spotlight any discoveries which demonstrate that Iraq has been deceiving the U. N. inspectors or which demonstrate the brutality of Saddam Hussein's regime.  Further, the administration will likely continue to make the case that, unlike those in America who are publicly protesting the looming war, the Iraqi citizens do not have the right to protest their government's actions under Hussein's rule.

Arab / Muslim nations:  As was the case during our military action in Afghanistan in the aftermath of September 11, the administration must reassure Arab and Muslim nations that military action against Saddam Hussein is not a war against Islam or against the Arab community.  In his televised speech on March 17, 2003, the president continued making this case when he addressed the following statement to the Iraqi people: "The tyrant will soon be gone.  The day of your liberation is near."  He further reassured the Iraqi people that our troops would bring them the medicine and food they need.

Israel:  During the 1991 Persian Gulf War Saddam Hussein launched numerous Scud missiles at Israel.  It is widely believed that this was part of a strategy to widen the conflict and fracture the international coalition by engaging Israel, which is hated by a vast majority of the Muslim nations in the Middle East. Israel demonstrated great restraint and did not retaliate for those attacks.  There is the chance that Saddam Hussein will follow suit and once again attack Israel in an effort to draw them into the conflict.  The administration must maintain communication with Israel and, in the event that Israel is attacked, urge that they restrain once more in an effort to avoid broadening the war beyond the administration's stated objectives of disarming Iraq and removing Saddam Hussein from power.

Factors Which Impede the Administration's PR Efforts

No smoking gun in Iraq:  As of today, no "smoking gun" which provides visible proof of Iraq's weapons programs has been found.  The administration remains convinced that there has been no such discovery because Saddam Hussein has gone to great pains to hide the evidence.  The discovery of a smoking gun would greatly advance the administration's case against Iraq.

Iraq's attempts to look like they're cooperating:  The Iraqi administration has made moves, such as the public destruction of a few missiles, designed to create a perception that they are cooperating with U.N. inspectors.  While the Bush administration has worked to make the case that these moves are nothing more than stunts by Saddam Hussein to buy time, the mainstream media from which most of the world gets its information has focused its coverage on Hussein's maneuvers.  

Osama Bin Laden still unaccounted for:  While most of the public's attention is focused on the looming conflict with Iraq, the fact that Osama Bin Laden remains unaccounted for still lurks in the back of many minds.  In the days immediately following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks Bin Laden was identified as public enemy number one in the war on terror.  Many will not view the initial phase of the war on terror as being complete until he has been accounted for.  Others question whether we should be focusing our energy on Iraq or on finishing the hunt for Bin Laden.

American public's short attention span:  The American public has a short attention span and is easily distracted by matters that, on their face, seem urgent.  In the weeks immediately following September 11, the only issue on our minds was the attacks and the subsequent war on terror.  However, it did not take long for the shock to wear off and for the collective mind of the public to wander.  Today, many act as though the 2001 attacks in New York and Washington are ancient history.  This will impede the president's ability to keep our people focused on an ever-changing international situation.

Competing priorities internationally:  Our world is as dangerous as ever.  The looming conflict with Iraq and the ongoing hunt for Osama Bin Laden and other Al Qaeda members are only two of a number of international situations which impact the United States.  North Korea has been rattling its saber in recent weeks, is in the process of restarting its nuclear program, has tested missiles over the Sea of Japan, and has threatened the United States.  It was recently discovered that Iran has an advanced nuclear program as well.  The situations with North Korea and Iran greatly complicate the administration's PR efforts.  For example, the fact that North Korea is potentially a nuclear power and that Iran is on track to have nuclear weapons within a few short years have led some of the president's political opponents to ask why we're not focusing on those countries and to question whether the conflict with Iraq is really about weapons of mass destruction and disarming Saddam Hussein.  

Politics at home:  President Bush is up for re-election in 2004, and a whole host of Democrats have entered the race hoping for a chance to unseat him.  While some of the Democrat contenders are relatively supportive of the president's policy on Iraq, others are vehemently opposed to military efforts.  Still others claim to support our troops, but publicly blast the Commander in Chief in the same breath.  The president's biggest PR challenge in this area is to remain focused on his stated task and not be distracted by the political attacks that he is sure to face.

Dissenting nations:  The fact that France and Germany, both of which are traditionally viewed as our allies, publicly oppose the administration on this issue has been a thorn in the president's side throughout the process.  One of the president's goals was to assemble a strong international coalition in the hope that such a broad-based demonstration of support might help persuade Saddam Hussein to peacefully disarm.  The public opposition from the French and Germans, as well as the Russians and Chinese, prevented such a coalition from developing.  This obviously frustrated the administration, leading some to state that these nations' opposition actually made war inevitable because it prevented the development of a coalition which might persuade Hussein to peacefully disarm.  In his March 17, 2003 television address the president touched on this issue, saying, "Some permanent members of the Security Council have publicly announced they will veto any resolution that compels the disarmament of Iraq.  These governments share our assessment of the danger, but not our resolve to meet it.  Many nations, however, do have the resolve and fortitude to act against this threat to peace, and a broad coalition is now gathering to enforce the just demands of the world.  The United Nations Security Council has not lived up to its responsibilities, so we will rise to ours."  

Vocal anti-war protests:  While polls indicated that a majority of Americans support the use of force to disarm Saddam, vocal anti-war protests have been held in a number of cities throughout America and around the world.  While I personally believe that the polls reflect a more accurate representation of Americans' opinions that the protesters, they have nevertheless drawn a significant amount of media attention.  

Homeland Security:  As President Bush was addressing the nation to issue an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein on March 17, 2003, the Department of Homeland Security was raising our terrorist threat level to its second highest rating.  This rating indicates a high risk of terrorist attacks.  Some have expressed the concern that the upcoming conflict with Iraq might spark terrorist strikes against American interests at home and abroad.  The administration must continue to focus on homeland security and remind Americans to be vigilant while it prosecutes the imminent military campaign in Iraq. 

Increasing anti-American sentiment worldwide:  Polls have shown that anti-American sentiment is on the rise worldwide, even in traditionally supportive nations such as Great Britain.  This presents the president with a two-fold challenge.  First, increasing anti-American sentiment makes it politically risky for foreign leaders to join with the United States in campaigns such as the one in Iraq.  Second, political opponents at home will take advantage of this sentiment to say that the president's policies are hurting America's relations with other countries and adversely impacting our foreign policy.  I personally believe that part of the rise in anti-American sentiment can be attributed to fear of an unbridled, unchallenged superpower.  The United States currently stands alone on the world stage in terms of both military and economic strength.  This fact invokes both jealousy and fear among other nations.  As the upcoming military conflict unfolds, the Bush administration should go to great lengths to demonstrate that it is serious about helping rebuild a new Iraq with a democratic form of government, and that we will back up our promises to provide a liberated Iraqi people with food and medical assistance.  Further, the administration should unveil every discovery which justifies our military action against Iraq in an effort to cement the case that this war was the right course of action.

Proof vs. Confidentiality:  We live in a "show me the money" culture in which people want to see absolute proof of something before they accept it as fact. The president must balance the public's desire for hard evidence against the military's need to keep some information confidential for security reasons.   

Iraqi Propaganda:  The Iraqi government has already begun a propaganda campaign designed to persuade Iraqi citizens, other Arabs, and the world that the United States is the terrorist and that Iraq is the victim.  Their propaganda claims that they have disarmed and that we are attacking them without just cause.  As in the Gulf War and the campaign against the Taliban, the administration must confront this challenge by revealing the truth to the world.  

As we enter 2003, President Bush and his administration are operating in a complex, volatile communications environment that we cannot comprehend.  Consider this... how difficult would it be for your business to achieve its marketing and public relations objectives in this kind of environment?

- FLW -